Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:08, is the safest bet: 24% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


SY 3037 Sun Country	PDX 04:55	FAI 07:56	13%	3%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 11:00 → ANC 13:46AS 775	2h 59m Anchorage	ANC 16:45 → FAI 17:54AS 1722	7h 54m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:54 → SEA 19:03DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	7h 36m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 12:16 → FAI 15:19AS 96	8h 11m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 09:53 → FAI 12:48AS 441	7h 29m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376	51m Seattle	SEA 09:53 → FAI 12:48AS 441	5h 40m	34%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON