tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3024 at 18:58, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3024 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 18:58 FAT 20:56 14% 6% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203 3h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:55 → FAT 16:44DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:39 → FAT 17:34UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376 1h 47m Seattle SEA 10:49 → FAT 12:57AS 384 4h 49m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 46m Denver DEN 19:14 → FAT 20:35UA 756 7h 45m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m Seattle SEA 16:16 → FAT 18:23AS 383 4h 35m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → PDX 09:00 → PHX 11:38AA 2658 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 14:15 → FAT 16:02AA 1919 7h 02m 96% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON