Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3028 PDX 08:27 → GEG 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 452 PDX 17:28 → GEG 18:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3028 SkyWest	PDX 08:27	GEG 09:49	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1356 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:50	GEG 22:59	12%	4%	1.0%	85%
AS 1482 Alaska	PDX 14:31	GEG 15:41	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 250 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	GEG 11:45	12%	3%	1.0%	88%
AS 452 Alaska	PDX 17:28	GEG 18:38	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 2404 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:03	GEG 08:13	8%	3%	0.8%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON