tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kailua/Kona, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 841 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:32 HNL 20:24 26% 7% 1.1% 53%
AS 813 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 HNL 13:28 30% 7% 1.3% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 19m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 28m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 34m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:50 → LAX 16:15DL 2766 2h 22m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 10h 32m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:05 → SFO 15:12UA 751 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 11h 38m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:00 → KOA 10:55AS 252 3h 46m Kailua/Kona KOA 14:41 → HNL 15:39AS 1107 10h 39m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 36m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 13h 23m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:33AS 775 2h 40m Anchorage ANC 16:13 → HNL 20:56AS 50 13h 26m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:00 → DFW 12:46AA 371 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:32 → HNL 16:37AA 115 12h 37m 70% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON