tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2016 United Flight history → PDX 08:17 IAD 16:33 9% 3% 0.6% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → IAD 16:20UA 599 8h 05m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 53m Houston IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 8h 23m 90% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 10h 23m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847 7h 13m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 29m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 32m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 12:48 → IAD 21:11UA 755 11h 11m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 10h 04m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON