Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 780 PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 1420 PDX 07:05 → IAH 13:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 780 United Flight history →	PDX 00:09	IAH 06:13	8%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	11%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	12%	3%	0.9%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:34 → IAH 13:38DL 1532	5h 53m	97%	83%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 06m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	6h 14m	94%	77%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	1h 01m Denver	DEN 17:29 → IAH 20:59UA 1587	6h 09m	89%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON