Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3321 at 10:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3321 SkyWest	PDX 10:45	IDA 13:32	13%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → IDA 12:11DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	100%	92%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 17m Denver	DEN 11:48 → IDA 13:29UA 8183	7h 29m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → IDA 22:32DL 2608	4h 18m	95%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 12:49 → IDA 15:43AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON