Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4125 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4125 PDX 05:44 → LAS 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 531 PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4125 Southwest	PDX 05:44	LAS 08:00	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1337 Alaska	PDX 09:01	LAS 11:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 1467 Alaska	PDX 07:41	LAS 09:52	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
WN 4707 Southwest	PDX 11:11	LAS 13:34	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1106 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:16	LAS 14:37	18%	6%	2.0%	71%
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:45	LAS 16:54	22%	7%	0.9%	84%
WN 2735 Southwest	PDX 15:06	LAS 17:24	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	22%	9%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON