Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2947 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 07:51 → LAX 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1469 PDX 14:38 → LAX 16:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:51	LAX 10:20	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:42	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:20	LAX 09:57	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAX 13:20	12%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	13%	6%	0.6%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	15%	6%	0.7%	87%
AS 481 Alaska	PDX 17:11	LAX 19:31	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 1469 Alaska	PDX 14:38	LAX 16:52	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON