tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 902 Alaska PDX 08:26 LIH 11:40 16% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 43m San Francisco SFO 08:44 → LIH 11:37UA 1111 9h 22m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 48m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:05 → SFO 15:12UA 751 1h 43m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 9h 37m 93% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 3h 04m Honolulu HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:22AS 1133 9h 52m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 43m 99% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:01AS 376 2h 27m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 9h 32m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841 53m Honolulu HNL 21:17 → LIH 22:07AS 1183 7h 35m 68% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON