tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 225 at 12:03, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 225 Alaska PDX 12:03 MCI 17:23 16% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 1h 26m Houston IAH 07:58 → MCI 09:55UA 2009 7h 46m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 5h 32m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657 6h 14m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 07:51 → LAX 10:20DL 2947 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → MCI 19:12DL 2243 9h 21m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:17 → IAD 16:33UA 2016 1h 30m Dulles IAD 18:03 → MCI 19:51UA 1165 9h 34m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 14:08 → ATL 22:00DL 2206 48m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 7h 50m 74% 54%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256 5h 30m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON