tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 300 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 MCO 15:49 14% 4% 1.8% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → MCO 11:13DL 1730 7h 40m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 08:43 → MCO 17:11UA 583 8h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 04m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 14m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 1h 56m Houston IAH 08:28 → MCO 12:02UA 521 8h 53m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 39m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 3h 39m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 10h 35m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 49m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Seattle SEA 15:43 → MCO 23:59AS 420 7h 11m 71% 53%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:09 → SEA 08:03AS 427 55m Seattle SEA 08:58 → MCO 17:13AS 346 7h 04m 70% 45%
AmericanDetails → PDX 14:07 → DFW 19:56AA 2496 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:58 → MCO 00:44 +1AA 1336 7h 37m 72% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON