Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3348 PDX 21:36 → MFR 22:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3034 PDX 11:00 → MFR 12:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3348 SkyWest	PDX 21:36	MFR 22:52	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:59	MFR 16:15	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
OO 3034 SkyWest	PDX 11:00	MFR 12:16	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 2125 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:52	MFR 15:54	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
AS 2266 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 22:04	MFR 23:06	21%	6%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON