Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3314 at 11:11, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3314 SkyWest	PDX 11:11	MSO 13:45	15%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:36 → MSO 23:11DL 1824	4h 57m	96%	84%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 00m Denver	DEN 11:31 → MSO 13:39UA 2357	7h 39m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	8h 59m	99%	79%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	3h 03m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	7h 50m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376	3h 21m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451	5h 41m	100%	70%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 38m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON