Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 204 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Safest bet that day WN 204 PDX 06:16 → OAK 08:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 362 PDX 15:09 → OAK 17:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 204 Southwest	PDX 06:16	OAK 08:14	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 362 Southwest	PDX 15:09	OAK 17:00	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON