Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 889 Alaska	PDX 07:05	OGG 09:57	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 353 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:45	OGG 20:40	22%	5%	0.9%	89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 14m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010	8h 30m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 41m	99%	81%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 29m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	13h 05m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 23m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:00 → KOA 10:55AS 252	2h 57m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:52 → OGG 14:29AS 1259	9h 29m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813	2h 31m Honolulu	HNL 15:59 → OGG 16:48AS 1436	9h 18m	98%	73%
United Details →	PDX 13:05 → SFO 15:12UA 751	1h 28m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	9h 12m	87%	69%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	10h 00m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577	54m San Diego	SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232	9h 10m	68%	50%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	48m Seattle	SEA 08:05 → OGG 11:19AS 245	8h 00m	62%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON