tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 534 at 17:56, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 534 Alaska PDX 17:56 ONT 20:18 20% 6% 0.7% no record
AS 2093 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 14:30 ONT 16:52 8% 2% 0.0% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 6h 37m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 5h 09m 96% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 1h 42m Boise BOI 14:31 → ONT 15:38AS 2025 · flown by Horizon 5h 08m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 53m Seattle SEA 07:46 → ONT 10:22AS 476 5h 22m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 52m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:54 → SEA 19:03DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 56m Seattle SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON