Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2306 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2306 PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1713 PDX 11:50 → ORD 18:06 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	11%	5%	0.7%	91%
AA 3329 American Flight history →	PDX 06:03	ORD 12:09	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 2094 United Flight history →	PDX 22:40	ORD 04:45	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 2822 United	PDX 08:22	ORD 14:20	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1923 United	PDX 10:35	ORD 16:47	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1094 American	PDX 22:52	ORD 04:33	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:08	ORD 12:52	19%	5%	1.0%	74%
UA 2266 United	PDX 14:18	ORD 20:26	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1713 American	PDX 11:50	ORD 18:06	25%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON