tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1776 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:17 PHL 15:23 13% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 3090 American Flight history → PDX 07:25 PHL 15:48 14% 4% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 14:19 → PHL 17:55DL 2594 8h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:25 → PHL 17:43DL 2022 8h 58m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:08UA 1575 7h 08m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 50m San Francisco SFO 08:51 → PHL 17:26UA 2824 9h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 58m Houston IAH 07:30 → PHL 11:40UA 2203 8h 31m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:54 → SEA 19:03DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Seattle SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114 8h 35m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 19:20 → SFO 21:09UA 2615 2h 11m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854 9h 30m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 29m Denver DEN 13:53 → PHL 19:36UA 2787 7h 46m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:00 → DFW 12:45AA 371 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:31 → PHL 18:03AA 891 8h 03m 69% 47%
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:01 → DFW 17:49AA 2655 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242 7h 56m 53% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON