Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3322 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3322 PDX 06:26 → PHX 09:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2986 PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3322 Southwest	PDX 06:26	PHX 09:13	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest	PDX 08:32	PHX 11:10	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
AS 1350 Alaska	PDX 09:03	PHX 11:39	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 09:00	PHX 11:38	14%	5%	0.8%	90%
WN 3324 Southwest	PDX 11:16	PHX 14:03	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1483 Alaska	PDX 11:08	PHX 13:44	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:26	PHX 17:02	18%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 3325 Southwest	PDX 15:08	PHX 17:47	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	28%	9%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON