Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3409 at 21:55, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3409 SkyWest	PDX 21:55	PSC 23:01	13%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 2475 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:31	PSC 15:22	17%	4%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → PSC 11:44DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	100%	90%
Alaska Details →	PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 08:52 → PSC 09:53AS 2195 · flown by Horizon	4h 53m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PSC 22:10DL 1712	4h 56m	95%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon	1h 45m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	3h 39m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:54 → SEA 19:03DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	4h 11m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:09 → SEA 08:03AS 427	49m Seattle	SEA 08:52 → PSC 09:53AS 2195 · flown by Horizon	2h 44m	62%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON