Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3329 PDX 11:08 → RDM 12:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2420 PDX 17:31 → RDM 18:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3329 SkyWest	PDX 11:08	RDM 12:05	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 2057 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 21:26	RDM 22:21	15%	3%	2.1%	90%
QX 2315 Horizon	PDX 14:30	RDM 15:24	15%	4%	1.7%	no record
QX 2420 Horizon	PDX 17:31	RDM 18:26	16%	5%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON