Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2082 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2082 PDX 07:56 → SAN 10:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1320 PDX 15:01 → SAN 17:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2082 Southwest	PDX 07:56	SAN 10:35	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 458 Southwest	PDX 14:06	SAN 16:45	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	20%	4%	0.9%	80%
AS 721 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:02	SAN 11:32	21%	4%	0.9%	80%
AS 1541 Alaska	PDX 13:47	SAN 16:18	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	24%	4%	0.9%	84%
AS 1320 Alaska	PDX 15:01	SAN 17:35	26%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON