Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2615 PDX 19:20 → SFO 21:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:56	16%	6%	0.6%	35%
OO 5733 SkyWest	PDX 10:50	SFO 13:08	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	19%	7%	0.7%	73%
AS 1403 Alaska	PDX 10:56	SFO 12:46	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1939 United	PDX 08:52	SFO 10:58	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 751 United Flight history →	PDX 13:04	SFO 15:10	21%	10%	0.6%	43%
AS 697 Alaska	PDX 19:35	SFO 21:24	22%	10%	0.7%	no record
AS 1393 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:56	SFO 19:45	24%	9%	0.7%	67%
UA 2615 United Flight history →	PDX 19:20	SFO 21:09	25%	12%	0.6%	55%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON