Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1270 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1270 PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 730 PDX 20:06 → SLC 22:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1270 Delta Flight history →	PDX 05:45	SLC 08:33	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	PDX 09:31	SLC 12:20	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:14	SLC 20:06	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 3355 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:44	SLC 13:43	10%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:15	SLC 16:07	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
OO 3288 SkyWest	PDX 14:44	SLC 17:43	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 730 Alaska	PDX 20:06	SLC 22:52	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON