tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 6h 18m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 1h 28m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 58m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403 9h 43m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 7h 39m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:00 → DFW 11:47AA 982 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → STL 16:49AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 8h 49m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON