tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3311 at 17:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3311 SkyWest PDX 17:45 TUS 20:42 11% 6% 0.7% no record
AS 2215 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:00 TUS 09:51 4% 0% 0.0% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 91% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 59m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:43 → TUS 16:46UA 2049 7h 56m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:25 → TUS 11:47DL 3680 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:20 → TUS 12:40UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376 2h 52m Seattle SEA 11:54 → TUS 14:49AS 648 6h 41m 100% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON