Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1269 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1269 PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1147 PHL 17:31 → ATL 20:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1269 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ATL 08:03	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
YX 4755 Republic	PHL 09:14	ATL 11:32	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4725 Republic	PHL 11:12	ATL 13:31	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1152 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:15	ATL 09:17	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1180 Delta Flight history →	PHL 09:00	ATL 11:05	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	PHL 11:16	ATL 13:22	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	PHL 13:25	ATL 15:31	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	PHL 15:22	ATL 17:27	14%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 5250 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:28	ATL 17:48	15%	4%	1.8%	97%worse than usual
F9 2297 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:51	ATL 12:08	20%	6%	1.0%	71%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:06	ATL 19:19	20%	7%	1.6%	62%
F9 1101 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:32	ATL 15:50	27%	9%	1.1%	60%
AA 2983 American Flight history →	PHL 18:04	ATL 20:26	29%	10%	2.4%	62%
AA 443 American Flight history →	PHL 20:26	ATL 22:41	30%	10%	1.1%	77%
F9 1147 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:31	ATL 20:00	36%	13%	2.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON