Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4779 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4779 PHL 09:09 → AUS 12:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1314 PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4779 Republic	PHL 09:09	AUS 12:22	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4790 Republic	PHL 10:43	AUS 13:41	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1314 American Flight history →	PHL 17:39	AUS 20:30	27%	7%	0.9%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270	53m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	5h 34m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	54m Detroit	DTW 20:09 → AUS 22:07DL 2578	5h 39m	83%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON