tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6091 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PHL 08:45 AVL 10:52 18% 6% 0.0% 82%
AA 6034 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record PHL 16:28 AVL 18:36 25% 4% 6.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → AVL 12:24DL 2181 6h 44m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:10 → BOS 08:40DL 5740 · flown by Republic 56m Boston BOS 09:36 → AVL 12:03DL 5778 · flown by Republic 4h 53m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182 6h 06m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont 4h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:09DL 3059 5h 09m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:40 → CLT 12:33AA 847 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA 4h 28m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037 5h 30m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:06 → ATL 19:19DL 1692 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116 5h 26m 92% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207 49m Chicago ORD 13:55 → AVL 16:58UA 4434 · flown by GoJet 5h 20m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON