Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6123 PHL 09:32 → BGR 11:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2142 PHL 13:43 → BGR 15:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 09:32	BGR 11:28	14%	3%	1.0%	90%
OH 5134 PSA	PHL 16:53	BGR 18:43	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
OH 5377 PSA	PHL 21:47	BGR 23:35	17%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 2142 American	PHL 13:43	BGR 15:30	18%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON