Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5357 at 20:15, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:15	BHM 21:58	17%	9%	0.9%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 47m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	5h 25m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:27 → DTW 14:15DL 2331	2h 24m Detroit	DTW 16:39 → BHM 17:43DL 3062	6h 16m	99%	81%
American Details →	PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1751	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:48 → BHM 11:54AA 5530 · flown by PSA	7h 54m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	6h 36m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163	4h 49m	97%	79%
American Details →	PHL 07:00 → DFW 09:37AA 583	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:57 → BHM 14:49AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	8h 49m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON