Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4858 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4858 PHL 05:41 → BNA 06:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 804 PHL 15:19 → BNA 16:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4858 Southwest	PHL 05:41	BNA 06:48	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1320 American	PHL 08:34	BNA 09:51	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3333 Southwest	PHL 12:07	BNA 13:18	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	18%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 15:55	BNA 17:05	22%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 804 American	PHL 15:19	BNA 16:23	24%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON