Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5740 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5740 PHL 07:10 → BOS 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3073 PHL 15:34 → BOS 16:46 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5740 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 07:10	BOS 08:40	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 10:00	BOS 11:27	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
B6 160 JetBlue	PHL 06:04	BOS 07:29	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2685 American	PHL 08:57	BOS 10:31	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	11%	4%	0.7%	84%
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 10:51	BOS 12:16	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 3186 American	PHL 12:54	BOS 14:33	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
YX 4721 Republic	PHL 17:34	BOS 19:18	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 16:55	BOS 18:23	16%	6%	0.8%	67%
AA 2404 American	PHL 20:21	BOS 21:56	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:47	BOS 20:12	27%	13%	0.7%	56%
B6 1860 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 16:58	BOS 18:23	27%	13%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHL 15:34	BOS 16:46	29%	8%	0.7%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON