Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


PT 5839 Piedmont	PHL 13:00	CAE 15:03	16%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 5882 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 20:15	CAE 22:22	19%	7%	1.4%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:14 → CAE 11:20DL 1590	5h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	5h 44m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CAE 18:41DL 8904	5h 16m	97%	79%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 08:58 → CAE 09:55AA 5956 · flown by Piedmont	3h 55m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:06 → ATL 19:19DL 1692	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	6h 37m	95%	76%
American Details →	PHL 09:00 → ORD 10:34AA 2095	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 13:24 → CAE 16:29AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CAE 20:07DL 2193	4h 45m	90%	71%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 18:18 → CAE 19:18AA 5959 · flown by Piedmont	5h 29m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → CAE 22:22AA 3260	7h 22m	67%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON