Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3139 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3139 PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2074 PHL 17:03 → CLT 18:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3139 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	CLT 07:53	6%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 847 American Flight history →	PHL 10:40	CLT 12:33	10%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 2767 American	PHL 08:29	CLT 10:19	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 12:08	CLT 13:48	17%	5%	1.0%	76%
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	17%	6%	1.2%	81%
AA 2189 American	PHL 18:59	CLT 20:55	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	26%	11%	1.5%	57%
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 16:05	CLT 17:41	27%	7%	1.0%	81%
AA 2074 American	PHL 17:03	CLT 18:45	28%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON