Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4361 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4361 PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 320 PHL 18:03 → CMH 19:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4361 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:50	CMH 23:41	8%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:21	CMH 10:10	10%	3%	1.2%	88%
AA 2253 American	PHL 10:31	CMH 12:28	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2592 American	PHL 15:44	CMH 17:32	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 320 American	PHL 18:03	CMH 19:48	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON