Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5064 at 19:49, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:49	DAY 22:04	8%	7%	2.3%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DAY 15:29DL 2763	6h 29m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108	4h 30m	94%	83%
American Details →	PHL 10:40 → CLT 12:33AA 847	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 16:08 → DAY 17:48AA 5321 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:10 → DAY 21:44DL 3167	6h 22m	98%	81%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 18:09 → DAY 19:53AA 5174 · flown by PSA	6h 04m	96%	80%
American Details →	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA	7h 56m	95%	73%
American Details →	PHL 16:05 → CLT 17:41AA 3012	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	4h 32m	85%	70%
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA	8h 44m	91%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:06 → ATL 19:19DL 1692	51m Atlanta	ATL 20:10 → DAY 21:44DL 3167	4h 38m	73%	60%
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:26UA 2665	54m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet	4h 41m	71%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON