Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5265 PSA	PHL 19:48	DCA 21:09	15%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:46	DCA 17:02	16%	6%	1.5%	97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	8h 08m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:10 → BOS 08:40DL 5740 · flown by Republic	1h 23m Boston	BOS 10:03 → DCA 11:57DL 5592 · flown by Republic	4h 47m	98%	90%
American Details →	PHL 08:21 → CMH 10:10AA 5640 · flown by PSA	1h 58m Columbus	CMH 12:08 → DCA 13:44AA 4700 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 08:48 → PIT 10:19AA 5871 · flown by Piedmont	2h 43m Pittsburgh	PIT 13:02 → DCA 14:27AA 4757 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	100%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043	4h 59m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:00 → BOS 11:27DL 5845 · flown by Republic	1h 08m Boston	BOS 12:35 → DCA 14:27DL 5672 · flown by Republic	4h 27m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 52m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	3h 13m Portland	PWM 13:44 → DCA 15:48AA 5528 · flown by PSA	6h 58m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 15:34 → BOS 16:46AA 3073	55m Boston	BOS 17:41 → DCA 19:39AA 1421	4h 05m	66%	52%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 37m	68%	46%
American Details →	PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306	54m Miami	MIA 20:21 → DCA 22:59AA 2897	6h 34m	63%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON