Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3335 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3335 PHL 05:15 → DEN 07:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2700 PHL 16:17 → DEN 18:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3335 Southwest	PHL 05:15	DEN 07:17	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	9%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 1423 United	PHL 07:58	DEN 10:05	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1313 American Flight history →	PHL 09:30	DEN 11:39	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:22	18%	6%	0.5%	60%
AA 2082 American	PHL 13:12	DEN 15:19	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2878 American	PHL 20:28	DEN 22:38	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2700 Southwest	PHL 16:17	DEN 18:28	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → DEN 13:47DL 1648	6h 01m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON