Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1751 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1751 PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2533 PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 05:00	DFW 07:34	8%	3%	1.3%	92%
AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 07:00	DFW 09:37	9%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 3307 American	PHL 08:28	DFW 11:07	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:11	DFW 08:56	12%	6%	1.9%	73%
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:48	DFW 13:22	15%	5%	1.5%	76%
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	19%	6%	1.8%	73%
AA 9783 American	PHL 13:21	DFW 15:49	22%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	24%	7%	1.9%	68%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	26%	7%	2.4%	69%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:37	DFW 22:56	31%	11%	4.7%	69%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 17:49	DFW 20:27	31%	7%	3.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON