Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Des Moines on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:40	DSM 12:44	12%	5%	0.9%	76%
OH 5219 PSA	PHL 19:40	DSM 21:49	13%	8%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094	7h 20m	98%	87%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → DSM 12:12AA 2962	7h 12m	99%	84%
United Details →	PHL 06:11 → IAH 08:51UA 584	3h 04m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa	8h 59m	100%	83%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 09:18 → DSM 10:37UA 466	5h 37m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 34m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	8h 07m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	57m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 34m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 16:05 → CLT 17:41AA 3012	48m Charlotte	CLT 18:29 → DSM 19:56AA 3020	4h 51m	59%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON