tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823 6h 25m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038 2h 30m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:03UA 4826 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053 6h 47m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094 5h 50m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1751 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → ECP 12:13AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 8h 13m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:06 → ATL 19:19DL 1692 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131 6h 52m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHL 12:08 → CLT 13:48AA 1859 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 16:57 → ECP 17:45AA 5297 · flown by PSA 6h 37m 92% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON