Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4608 Republic	PHL 10:39	EYW 14:04	13%	3%	5.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	6h 26m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	52m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → EYW 10:50DL 1281	4h 50m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → EYW 17:25DL 2168	6h 09m	98%	76%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:53 → EYW 13:10AA 1816	7h 10m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:01 → EYW 13:00DL 1472	5h 45m	97%	74%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56AA 1252	3h 29m Miami	MIA 12:25 → EYW 13:30AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 30m	98%	72%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → EYW 15:31UA 752	9h 31m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON