Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 375 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 375 PHL 06:00 → FLL 08:47 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest F9 4439 PHL 14:49 → FLL 17:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	17%	4%	4.7%	71%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	PHL 07:12	FLL 10:16	21%	4%	6.8%	79%
AA 1465 American	PHL 11:38	FLL 14:42	21%	6%	2.6%	no record
AA 2462 American	PHL 18:39	FLL 21:38	24%	6%	2.4%	no record
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:53	FLL 10:48	24%	5%	4.8%	74%
AA 2718 American	PHL 13:53	FLL 16:54	25%	6%	2.8%	no record
F9 4439 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 14:49	FLL 17:46	30%	10%	4.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON