tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4587 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record PHL 19:45 IAD 21:10 16% 13% 11.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:15 → ATL 09:17DL 1152 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 7h 11m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 13m Chicago ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277 5h 55m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 34m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 5h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 3h 16m Detroit DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787 6h 36m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 13:25 → ATL 15:31DL 2279 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 6h 58m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 5h 58m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:26 → ORD 10:47UA 1811 2h 18m Chicago ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128 6h 41m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON