Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4680 at 15:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4680 PHL 15:53 → JAX 18:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1970 PHL 18:24 → JAX 20:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4680 Republic	PHL 15:53	JAX 18:25	9%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1791 American Flight history →	PHL 08:34	JAX 11:02	10%	4%	1.1%	81%
OH 5047 PSA	PHL 13:03	JAX 15:27	11%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 1970 American Flight history →	PHL 18:24	JAX 20:48	19%	7%	1.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON