Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2280 PHL 09:29 → LAS 11:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1529 PHL 16:24 → LAS 18:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2280 American	PHL 09:29	LAS 11:49	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3005 American Flight history →	PHL 18:04	LAS 20:29	26%	10%	1.7%	71%
AA 1529 American	PHL 16:24	LAS 18:48	27%	12%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 02m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON