Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 824 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 824 PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3123 PHL 17:34 → LAX 20:19 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 824 American Flight history →	PHL 08:26	LAX 11:14	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2408 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	LAX 13:46	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2944 American Flight history →	PHL 13:14	LAX 15:57	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2225 American	PHL 15:52	LAX 18:29	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2252 American	PHL 19:39	LAX 22:37	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3235 American Flight history →	PHL 21:59	LAX 00:45	19%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 3123 American	PHL 17:34	LAX 20:19	23%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:59 → MSP 07:54DL 2679	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 11m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:00 → ATL 11:05DL 1180	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 12m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 49m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON