tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1480 American PHL 10:11 MCI 12:17 13% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 3203 American PHL 20:20 MCI 22:22 20% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:11 → IAH 08:51UA 584 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 9h 04m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 52m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 34m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → ATL 08:03DL 1269 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 7h 12m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:16 → ATL 13:22DL 2270 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 6h 13m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHL 15:22 → ATL 17:27DL 2131 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023 7h 32m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 26m Chicago ORD 08:56 → MCI 10:32UA 1764 5h 32m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 22m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 49m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741 4h 37m 90% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON